Automobile Consumption Restrained by “Tree Guarantees” wil
(Comment by auto.ifeng) According to the statistical data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the automobile sales volume in our automobile market from January to August reached 13.948 million with the year-on-year growth of 11.8%. The sales volume of passenger cars reached 11.256 million, an increase of 13.1% in the corresponding period over the previous year. The sales volume of commercial vehicle reached 2.692 million, increased by 6.8% from a year earlier. In this September, though relevant data about current automobile production and marketing haven’t been released, the performance of Chinese automobile market in September was quite good with the growth speed higher than average level in August since the current macro-economic situation tends to be stable and September is the beginning of traditional peak period. As for the performance of Chinese automobile market in the fourth quarter, it would be quite optimistic based on the following three reasons:
Firstly, macro-economic situation forecasts an upturn.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China recently, national industrial enterprises above designated size realized the total profit of RMB 3486.39 billion from January to August with the year-on-year growth of 12.8%, and the growth speed was increased by 1.7% compared to that from January to July. In September, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of Chinese manufacturing industry was 51.1%, increased by 0.1% compared to that in August, witnessing a rise for three consecutive months. The continuously positive economic data show that our macro-economy tends to be stable. From the third quarter, our economic operation has already entered the stable growth period. In the meanwhile, numerous domestic and oversea organizations show their enhanced confidence on the Chinese economic recovery. Dowin increases its prediction on the Chinese GDP growth in the fourth quarter from 7.8% to 8%. China Bank Institute of International Finance predicts that economy in the fourth quarter will remain prosperous with the annual growth rate reaching 7.7% when the overseas market demand keeps continuous improvement and “micro stimulation” policies take obvious effect. China International Capital Corporation Limited increases its prediction on the growth speed to 7.6% this year and 7.4% next year. In addition, Union Bank of Switzerland and Nomura Holdings respectively up-regulated the expectation on the growth speed of Chinese economy. Therefore, the macro-economic situation is stable, and the Chinese automobile market will be prosperous in the fourth quarter.
Secondly, the automobile consumption restrained by “Tree Guarantees” will be released in the fourth quarter
Provisions on Responsibility for the Repair, Replacement and Return of Household Automotive Products (Automobile “Three Guarantees” in short) have been officially implemented since October 1. As we all know, a lot of consumers who are ready to purchase automobiles recently are waiting for the official implementation of the policy in order to protect their own profit. Therefore, before October 1, a great deal of automobile consumption was restrained. But from October 1, with the official implementation of the Three Guarantees, the automobile consumption which was restrained previously will be released in the fourth quarter beyond doubt, especially in the automobile market in October, it’s predicted that the sales volume will increase at a high speed on both year-on-year basis and month-on-month basis. Therefore, domestic automobile manufacturers and dealers are comprehensively preparing for the climax of automobile sales volume in October and the fourth quarter. While confronting the pressure of finishing the annual production and operation task, automobile manufacturers and dealers will surely endeavor to realize the high-speed growth of production and marketing in the fourth quarter. It is believed that various marketing promotional activities will be held in the fourth quarter along with the hot sells in the market.
Thirdly, due to the decision on lasting the standard transitional period of automotive diesel fuel to the end of the next year in the fourth stage, commercial automobile consumption restrained by State IV Standard for diesel automobiles will be released in the fourth quarter.
Though State IV Standard for diesel automobiles is delayed to be implemented repeatedly at present and there is no final conclusion for it, the National Development and Reform Commission announced on September 23 that the quality of automotive fuel and diesel was updated to the fourth stage. Since standard transitional period of automotive diesel fuel will last to the end of the next year in the fourth stage, it can be believed that the implementation time for the State IV Standard for diesel automobiles has been determined. That is to say, State IV Standard for diesel automobiles must be implemented before the end of next year at the latest, and the end of next year will be the deadline. Therefore, owing to the definite information, commercial automobile consumption restrained by the uncertain implementation time of the State IV Standard for diesel automobiles previously will be released in the fourth quarter. What’s more, the macro-economic situation which is more close with the performance of commercial automobiles tends to be much better, it’s predicted that the performance of commercial automobile market in the fourth quarter will be better than its performance in the first three quarters, and the annual growth speed of the sales volume of commercial automobile market will surpass 7% at least.
While observing the favorable factors of automobile market mentioned above, we should also notice the negative impact of unfavorable factors such as automobile restricted purchase on the sales volume of automobile market in the fourth quarter and the whole year. As for the restricted purchase measures in the first- and second-tier cities, automobile manufacturers have focused on exploring the third- and fourth-tier cities. Their expansion of channel network in the third- and fourth-tier cities can be conductive to offsetting the negative influence on automobile sales volume caused by restricted purchase in first- and second-tier cities. According to the favorable and unfavorable factors which influence the automobile market performance in the fourth quarter and the whole year, the Chinese automobile sales volume of 19.306 million in 2012, the Chinese automobile sales volume of 13.948 million in the first eight months, and the year-on-year growth of 11.8%, the automobile sales volume in the whole year can be predicted. It’s estimated that the sales volume in the Chinese automobile market can reach 21.65 million at least and the year-on-year growth will surpass 12.2%. The most optimistic estimate will reach 22 million and the year-on-year growth will reach around 14%.